Get tales like this delivered straight to your inbox. Join The 74 E-newsletter
Anticipating what Donald Trump and his allies will do might be as a lot an train in scrying as deep evaluation. That stated, it’s nonetheless helpful to attempt to learn the tea leaves to at the very least outline the seemingly contours of chance. Thus, I need to lay out what I feel we would count on from the second Trump administration in the case of baby care and early studying, absolutely cognizant that these predictions could look silly in a matter of months. I draw my projections primarily from public reporting, the actions that occurred throughout the first Trump time period, and steps taken by Republican leaders throughout the Biden administration with regard to baby care.
I need to be crystal clear up entrance: It’s tough, if not unattainable, to disentangle the Trump administration’s method to baby care coverage from its broader set of insurance policies impacting households. If the President-elect makes good on his threats round mass deportation, we know from previous expertise that many kids might be harmed. Equally, if the Republican-led Congress pays for a big regressive tax reduce with bloody slashes to Medicaid and SNAP, the unfavorable impacts to low- and moderate-income households will dwarf any modest modifications to baby care coverage. (Certainly, a lately launched “menu” of cuts the Home plans to pursue spares baby care and Head Begin however features a host of measures that might seemingly hurt this inhabitants.)
Fairly frankly, it’s unlikely that Trump himself has baby care a lot on his radar. In his first time period, Ivanka Trump was the driving pressure behind steps just like the 2019 White Home Summit on Paid Go away and Little one Care, whereas Trump’s garbled response to a baby care query throughout the 2024 marketing campaign demonstrated a skinny understanding at finest. Ivanka isn’t slated to play a considerable position within the administration this time round, and though most baby care coverage sits inside the Division of Well being and Human Companies (HHS), it’s not apt to be excessive on the precedence checklist for HHS Secretary nominee Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (though as a presidential candidate, Kennedy had a somewhat daring baby care plan, calling free of charge look after all households with younger kids residing under the poverty line).
Essentially the most pivotal actors on baby care are, in my estimation, Vice President-elect JD Vance and a handful of GOP Senators. Vance represents a new wing of the Republican Celebration that’s ostensibly extra involved with robust households than pure financial development, and has proven openness to the necessity for extra baby care funding if carried out in a pluralistic vogue. Equally, a number of Senators — maybe most notably Sen. Invoice Cassidy, R-La.,who’s the incoming chair of the Well being, Schooling, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee, and Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala. — stand to play main agenda-setting roles.
Contemplating the baby care payments put forth within the present Congress that had bipartisan assist, a believable baby care agenda for Trump’s second presidency could embody some or all the under factors. Be aware that I exclude the debate on the Little one Tax Credit score; whereas its destiny will in fact have an effect on households and the federal government’s general budgetary math, it’s a broad household assist coverage, not a baby care coverage. I additionally need to reiterate that is not a listing of my private coverage preferences, however what I count on could realistically be on the docket:
- An Expanded Little one and Dependent Care Tax Credit score: In July 2024, Britt launched a bipartisan invoice, alongside Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., that might amongst different issues develop the utmost profit for the Little one and Dependent Care Tax Credit score (CDCTC) and make it refundable. This may characterize a serious enchancment on a clunky credit score wherein a plurality of the profit goes to households making over $100,000 a yr.
- True Value-of-Care Reimbursements: In August 2024, Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb., together with six different GOP Senators, launched a invoice to reauthorize the Little one Care and Improvement Block Grant Act (CCDBG). Amongst different steps, this laws would require all states to undertake true “cost-of-care fashions” to set their subsidy reimbursement charges. That will characterize an enormous enchancment over the present insufficient mannequin wherein reimbursement charges are set as a share of what states decide applications presently cost in an artificially depressed market. A number of states have already made this swap. There are trade-offs right here, as implementing a cost-of-care mannequin (which might considerably enhance per-child reimbursement charges) with out placing extra money into CCDBG would seemingly lead to fewer households being served — in essence, squeezing on two sides of a too-small balloon.
- Regulation Streamlining: Deregulating baby care is usually a gloss for not wanting to repair the structural issues within the system — and within the worst circumstances, can result in extra harmful conditions for kids. Nonetheless, over the many years, laws have stacked up such that the prices of some outweigh the advantages. As an example, states variously dictate a minimal top of fencing round playgrounds, minimal inches of floor cowl, and ground areas wherein carpeting is appropriate; licensing checklists can embody actually a whole lot of things. There are additionally zoning and housing laws that can create boundaries to opening and working household baby care applications. North Carolina Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx and Washington Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez lately co-sponsored a invoice to take away sure laws round meals preparation for baby care suppliers. Whereas I imagine the complete matter needs to be approached cautiously, we could properly see extra payments on this vein.
- Extra Assist for Employer-Sponsored Little one Care: I’ve registered my excessive wariness across the development of leaning on employers as a core baby care resolution, versus positioning them as advocates for common options which embody company taxation. That stated, there’s little query that selling employer-sponsored care has been a well-liked technique for each events in recent times. To that finish, one other a part of the Britt-Kaine proposal would majorly enhance what is named the Employer-Supplied Little one Care Credit score (45F), which defrays firm prices for offering baby care advantages to their workers.
- Stronger Insurance policies for Household, Pal and Neighbor (FFN) Caregivers and Keep-at-House Mother and father: Vance and different conservative thinkers — in addition to loads of thinkers on the left — have identified that federal baby care coverage tends to privilege licensed applications over “casual care.” Whereas FFN caregivers are technically eligible to obtain CCDBG subsidies, the method might be arduous and the pay depressing. Present coverage can be silent on stay-at-home dad and mom. Varied proposals have popped up within the final yr to deal with FFN caregivers and stay-at-home dad and mom extra pretty, similar to Democratic California Rep. Ro Khanna’s proposal to pay all FFNs a minimal of $15 per hour and supply a month-to-month stipend of $300 for stay-at-home dad and mom and Sen. Marco Rubio’s, R-Fla. proposal to make CCDBG subsidies extra available for sure members of those teams and at larger charges. It’s essential for policymakers to understand that this isn’t an either-or equation. Father or mother alternative cuts each methods and extra federal assist is required for each licensed and unlicensed suppliers, for households with a stay-at-home father or mother and households the place dad and mom work exterior the house.
It’s unattainable to know what Trump’s second presidency will imply for baby care. We’re within the midst of a realignment round household coverage and it’s a extremely variable scenario with a variety of doable outcomes. Little one care may very well be placed on the backburner solely; Head Begin funding might nonetheless get caught within the budgetary crosshairs; the kid care system may very well be consumed by across-the-board cuts to discretionary funding. As we enter 2025, and extra turns into clear within the coming months, I stay up for unpacking the information collectively.
Get tales like these delivered straight to your inbox. Join The 74 E-newsletter